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Thread: A Net Exodus?

  1. #101
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by zippski View Post
    Here's the chart that says it all.

    Note the box on the mid-right that says "Actual mirrorless sales in 2013 were only 1/3 of the 2012 prediction"

    Yes Olympus, you made a smart move in dropping DSLRs.



    Leigh
    zippski
    I can't see the chart - a broken link, perhaps.

    I think you make a mistake when you look at the whole marked, and use those numbers for Olympus. If you look at the sales number for Olympus instead; you will see that mirror-less has been a huge success for Olympus.

    I personally believe that if Olympus had not started with -4/3 systems; they would have quit the camera business by now.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I think you are correct. If not for m4/3, Oly would be gone now. They knew they would never be able to capture any appreciable dslr market share from Canikon, it was a death spiral not to try something different. They may still go down in flames, whether from sales or mismanagement, but they bought some time to try to figure it out.
    Nate

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    The chart is working on my browser.

    Here is the direct link from 4/3rumours (definitely a mirrorless fanboy site if the ever was one)

    Note also that mirrorless sales are concentrated in home-market Japan (fully 27% of worldwide sales).

    The Camera Industry crisis in easy numbers. | 43 Rumors

    Leigh
    zippski

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Aside from what the chart says, my God! What horrible graphics!

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I think the decline in camera sales are in part due to the younger generation's love of the iPhone.

    My granddaughter was showing some interest in taking photos so I thought I would offer her one of my older E series cameras. She has no interest in a camera larger and more complex than the iPhone. She takes many photos every day and has a great eye for photography, but an iPhone is good enough for her. She has no interest in printing photos as she can quickly share her images with her friends on the social media websites.

    I think the majority of the younger generation, and I think most women, live in a different world than most of the "Photographer" do.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Luminous Landscape have an interesting view of the camera industry titled "What Matters".

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Link?

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    This is the crux of the matter, Lawrence. The path to enthusiast and advanced photography has completely changed, which has profound implications on the "camera" business.

    1. What is a camera? It's a secondary feature on a consumer electronic device, like the tweezers on your Swiss army knife.
    2. What can be done with the camera portion of devices? A lot, and vastly more with each successive generation, at least from the standpoint of posting photos to Instagram and Facebook, videos to YouTube.
    3. Who, having learned photography using a phone, wants to step up to a standalone picture-taking device? I don't know, but the camera industry is desperate to figure this out. And they've placed their bets on what sort of camera the move-ups want. Now, we wait.
    4. The DSLR demographic is rather fixed, and aging out. My sense is the DSLR's future is as a specialty picture-making device for a relatively narrow pie slice of the overall still photography realm. Something not a DSLR will prevail--it will be smaller, have a greater feature set and do video as well as it does still images, but it is competing for a permanently reduced market. This might be micro four-thirds or it might be a competing system; it's probably not something completely new (but who knows what's idling on the shelf awaiting a green light from management?).

    That's my nickel, anyway. ("Nickel" being a small-denomination U.S. coin, not the metal, for our not-US/Canada friends.)

    Cheers,

    Rick

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rick_D View Post

    That's my nickel, anyway. ("Nickel" being a small-denomination U.S. coin, not the metal, for our not-US/Canada friends.)

    Cheers,

    Rick
    The nickel is also a 5 cent coin in Canada, no dead president on the "heads" side, just a likeness of a monarch of the British Commonwealth.

    As for the discussion about m4/3 vs. 4/3 vs. Canon-Nikon-Sony-Pentax, it is what it is. For whatever reason, most people don't want to bother with anything larger or more complex that a smartphone, then again, most people don't take anything more complicated than snapshots. I would hazard a guess that most of the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras that have been sold will never have a lens interchanged (could be the same for the DSLR's as well), most people aren't into that level of photography.

    It's no different than it was 40 years ago. Back then there were serious photographers who owned SLRs, top-end rangefinders, medium format and large format cameras, everyone else had the equivalent of a the Kodak Instamatic. The market looks like it's returning to that paradigm, serious photographers will still use more advanced equipment, everyone else will use the electronic Instamatic in their phones.

    As for the DSLR demographic "aging-out", I see a good number of young, serious photographers who carry the larger cameras.

    I think Mark Twain's statement about the rumours of his death being exaggerated may hold true for the DSLR market, at least for now.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I fully agree with Mark Twain, John - I actually think it's the old geezers who are trading in for lightweight m4/3 stuff, not the young guys. Young guys don't really care about the weight (I don't and I'm not exactly young), and they like the macho factor of a big DSLR.

    And like it or not, m4/3 quality has not reached the quality perception of the DSLR -not by a long shot- to the photo enthusiast segment. Note in the chart that although total camera sales are down, DSLR percentages of total camera sales are actually up at the expense of P/S's, unlike mirrorless, which has barely budged.

    Leigh
    zippski

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Hey now, I was throwing y'all a bone with my "not-US/Canada." When a kid I'd get those 12-sided things in change and they didn't work in vending machines. (Oh No!)

    Will caution against tracking demographics based on what we see walking around. At a given time, 99+% of all cameras are in a drawer somewhere and most of them stay there all but a few days/year. Based on photo courses I've taken at the nearby college, Nikon is essentially the only camera maker, with a smattering made by some company that begins with "C".

    I'll stick with my suspicion: DSLR sales are headed for a cliff edge, not just a downhill slope. The youngs aren't going to adopt them in sufficient numbers to recapture the aging cohort that has been supporting sales. China, of course, is the wildcard here. I have no sense of that market's desires.

    Cheers,

    Rick

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rick_D View Post
    Hey now, I was throwing y'all a bone with my "not-US/Canada." When a kid I'd get those 12-sided things in change and they didn't work in vending machines. (Oh No!)

    Will caution against tracking demographics based on what we see walking around. At a given time, 99+% of all cameras are in a drawer somewhere and most of them stay there all but a few days/year. Based on photo courses I've taken at the nearby college, Nikon is essentially the only camera maker, with a smattering made by some company that begins with "C".

    I'll stick with my suspicion: DSLR sales are headed for a cliff edge, not just a downhill slope. The youngs aren't going to adopt them in sufficient numbers to recapture the aging cohort that has been supporting sales. China, of course, is the wildcard here. I have no sense of that market's desires.

    Cheers,

    Rick
    Just didn't want the rest of the world thinking that Canada uses your nickels, well, we do use American nickels if we find them in our loose change, but that's only to keep our national nickel production costs to a minimum.

    I think it's way too soon to know what will happen to the DSLR market, only time will tell. You may be correct about the younger people, but trying to predict what the younger generation will want is like trying to predict the exact temperature at noon on July 10th 2075.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Roberts View Post
    Good essay.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I think that the biggest problem with the camera market is basically saturation. If you own a camera such as an Olympus E-M5, or a Pentax K5, or a Nikon D7000, what is the point of upgrading? Advances in camera equipment are few and far between.

    Unless you are a pro clicking through 100-200k shots a year, there really is no reason to buy new. Most people I know have a DSLR, they use it a little, they don't even consider buying a new one.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edmunds View Post
    I think that the biggest problem with the camera market is basically saturation. If you own a camera such as an Olympus E-M5, or a Pentax K5, or a Nikon D7000, what is the point of upgrading? Advances in camera equipment are few and far between.

    Unless you are a pro clicking through 100-200k shots a year, there really is no reason to buy new. Most people I know have a DSLR, they use it a little, they don't even consider buying a new one.
    Exactly. And it's a problem that m4/3 is far better adapted to than 4/3 was. People are much more inclined to try adding something different (smaller, etc.), than they are to upgrade to something that's only a very modest improvement over what they have. The notion that Olympus would somehow be doing better with DSLRs today is completely unsupported by the data.

    The real problem is that digital cameras are now a mature market, and everybody is scrambling to grab the same slice of a shrinking pie. In the short term, that means prices will go down. In the long term, it means some manufacturers will probably leave the market. The company that's really screwed is Nikon, because cameras are 60% of their business.

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Scott Kelby keeps talking about his wife's photography all taken with an iPhone. She apparently takes great photos and has no interest in using a professional camera. I thought this was interesting because Mr. Kelby owns a large company dedicated to photography training and processing.
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Roberts View Post
    This brings a few questions/observations to mind:
    1. I like the photo.
    2. How do the files stand up to enlarging rather than just being seen on a screen?
    3. If the answer to 2 is positive, it puts to bed the theory that smaller sensors are inferior, the old ff v 4/3 chestnut.
    4. There is the question of filters, aperture and shutter speed control etc., so I am guessing (don't have an iPhone) that creative manipulation in camera is limited?
    Guy
    2- iPhone 4S and later are 8Mpixel cameras. Presuming your scene is within the DR, and the exposure is good, they print just like any other decent 8Mpixel image file.

    3- there's no getting around the fact that a small sensor will never be as sensitive as a larger one with similar resolution.

    4- there are many apps that exercise the camera beyond what Apple provides. There's a camera control API.

    The iPhone will never replace an E-M1. It replaces a pocket P&S ...

    G
    Last edited by Godfrey; 03-15-2014 at 09:56 PM.

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I get the same kind of results from my Nokia Lumina 900, 8MP camera on board. As Godfrey points out, the conditions matter. While the results are good, it doesn't match my old e500, but good enough for what I would use a P&S for.
    Last edited by jnicklin; 03-15-2014 at 08:36 PM. Reason: correction
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Agree with G and J.
    My daughter takes a lot of pictures with her 4G, and sometimes they are really good, but not soooo often. If she is going anywhere and wants good pictures, she takes her E-620 and the two kit lenses. Still a big difference. She is secretly lusting after my E-M1. She is very small, and the size is perfect for her.
    Our kids burned through half a dozen or so P+Ss, all went buggy before their time. Now they all have phones and have never looked back.

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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Well Godfrey answered the question and I agree with him. The IPhone, no matter how good the IQ gets, will not replace a good DSLR. But I am really impressed with the IPhone.


    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Roberts View Post
    This brings a few questions/observations to mind:
    1. I like the photo.
    2. How do the files stand up to enlarging rather than just being seen on a screen?
    3. If the answer to 2 is positive, it puts to bed the theory that smaller sensors are inferior, the old ff v 4/3 chestnut.
    4. There is the question of filters, aperture and shutter speed control etc., so I am guessing (don't have an iPhone) that creative manipulation in camera is limited?
    Guy


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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by zippski View Post
    and they like the macho factor of a big DSLR.

    Leigh
    zippski
    On the way to the hummingbird exibit, a couple passed me with the halter-rig and pro-grade Canons with huge lenses, strapped to their chest. They looked like a couple of penguins.
    Later, I was approached by them outside the exibit and as they waddled past me with their chests puffed up, they lifted their noses up and would not even look my direction.
    I got some great shots with my "tiny rig" of E-M1 & 4/3 40-150mm lens, and had a great time as well, busily photographing away and inconspicuously minding my own business.
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  23. #123
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    I worked a high end event last year and most of the photographers were older than me, I am 54, they carried two full frames each. It was more a Nikon vs Canon thing going on. But even though it was a long event and very hot it didn't seem to bother them. I had my a99, a77 and three lenses. The place was spread out and a lot of walking involved. All that gear didn't slow me down and I have had three back surgeries and a neck surgery. The surgeries were from an accident I had in 2009 not from carrying heavy gear.
    The weight thing is way over played with most. IMO. I see few complain their gear is slowing them down. To me a smaller camera has almost no advantage.

    Quote Originally Posted by beameup View Post
    On the way to the hummingbird exibit, a couple passed me with the halter-rig and pro-grade Canons with huge lenses, strapped to their chest. They looked like a couple of penguins.
    Later, I was approached by them outside the exibit and as they waddled past me with their chests puffed up, they lifted their noses up and would not even look my direction.
    I got some great shots with my "tiny rig" of E-M1 & 4/3 40-150mm lens, and had a great time as well, busily photographing away and inconspicuously minding my own business.


  24. #124
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Several members at our 1,000 member Meetup approached me with their new A7s. My E-M1 seems just about the same size as the A7/7R.
    Is this indicative of move by Sony? Anyway, I see no reason to place the necessary components inside a huge body for the sake of "looking impressive". It sort of follows what I finally did with my desktop when I dumped it off at the recycling center after I found that my laptop was more than capable of handling my post-processing needs.

    Quote Originally Posted by cosmonaut View Post
    I worked a high end event last year and most of the photographers were older than me, I am 54, they carried two full frames each. It was more a Nikon vs Canon thing going on. But even though it was a long event and very hot it didn't seem to bother them. I had my a99, a77 and three lenses. The place was spread out and a lot of walking involved. All that gear didn't slow me down and I have had three back surgeries and a neck surgery. The surgeries were from an accident I had in 2009 not from carrying heavy gear.
    The weight thing is way over played with most. IMO. I see few complain their gear is slowing them down. To me a smaller camera has almost no advantage.
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  25. #125
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    Default Re: So, where's that E-7 Olympus?

    Quote Originally Posted by beameup View Post
    Anyway, I see no reason to place the necessary components inside a huge body for the sake of "looking impressive".
    Do you really think that this is why the camera manufacturers build large cameras? I don't.
    Rich
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